UC Study Shows Carmel Valley Village at the Highest Risk for Deaths from Wildfire Evacuation
- Fova 911
- Jun 14
- 2 min read
Updated: Jun 14
Carmel Valley Village falls in the Highest Risk Category for Wildfire Evacuation
A new study published June 1 in the prestigious Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) journal, found wildfire deaths were concentrated in communities that had one to six roads leading to safety, making evacuees “vulnerable to congestion, blockage, or simultaneous exposure to fire fronts.” The study from UC Santa Barbara reveals that the number of roads out of a community may be one of the strongest predictors of wildfire fatalities, and that a surprisingly specific threshold separates high-risk communities from safer ones.
Carmel Valley Village has but one egress road, giving residents just 2 ways out.
The UC researchers analyzed wildfire deaths across the U.S. from 2008 to 2024 in relation to road networks. They concluded that communities with few ways out saw the vast majority of fatalities. Lead author and researcher Caitlin Fong added, “That tells us it's a structural constraint, not a demographic one. Road redundancy is what saves lives.” Their research predated the Palisades and Eaton fires in Southern California.
According to the study, Carmel Valley Village is one of many communities in the greater Bay Area where residents face a sharply higher risk of death during wildfires. “If you know you’re in an egress-limited community, you should have conversations with your family, your neighbors, your community about what your plan is,” said Fong. “Your road networks are probably very important for your survivability.”
The report cites the 2018 Camp Fire east of Chico, where 66 of the 85 deaths happened in Paradise, which had six outward roads, and the 2020 North Complex Fire in Butte, Plumas and Yuba counties that killed 13 people in Berry Creek, “a small community with only two exits.” In both locations, many people died in vehicles. Commenting on the report for the East Bay Times, Michael Wara, senior research scholar at Stanford University’s Woods Institute for the Environment added that many of the 25 victims of the 1991 Oakland hills Tunnel Fire were killed in cars. “They were stuck in gridlock.”
As part of the study, scholars provided an interactive map showing the "Wildfire Evacuation Risk Across U.S. Communities." Communities deemed most at risk are represented by magenta spots on the map. Those areas had both the greatest likelihood of burning — as determined by the U.S. Forest Service — and six or fewer exit routes.
Carmel Valley is represented by a magenta spot for highest risk.
Fewer Roads Out: Higher Risk for Wildfire Deaths
Here is the link to that interactive map:
This is the study as reported by the University of California:
Comments